Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 0.089165 0.103545 0.120016 0.140390 0.165068 0.194187 0.231435
2025-10-19 0.069024 0.086370 0.108138 0.137843 0.177925 0.231011 0.308142
2025-10-26 0.055319 0.073720 0.098689 0.135855 0.191196 0.272959 0.407683
2025-11-02 0.044069 0.061971 0.087965 0.129762 0.197881 0.309508 0.517776
2025-11-09 0.034993 0.051519 0.076959 0.120761 0.198259 0.338226 0.633086
2025-11-16 0.029675 0.045699 0.071839 0.120076 0.213036 0.399415 0.849238
2025-11-23 0.025388 0.040718 0.067087 0.119002 0.227597 0.469047 1.139898
2025-11-30 0.022312 0.037203 0.064159 0.120734 0.249309 0.567841 1.600601
2025-12-07 0.019697 0.034022 0.061205 0.121776 0.270860 0.682118 2.249041
2025-12-14 0.017055 0.030332 0.056537 0.117981 0.280086 0.772604 2.958030
2025-12-21 0.014225 0.025830 0.049386 0.106698 0.265857 0.786152 3.390793
2025-12-28 0.012791 0.023861 0.047176 0.106757 0.284122 0.926128 4.758215
2026-01-04 0.011753 0.022581 0.046329 0.110446 0.317111 1.161138 7.449593
2026-01-11 0.010715 0.021134 0.044826 0.112081 0.345551 1.417142 11.466474
2026-01-18 0.009801 0.019809 0.043361 0.113501 0.375337 1.728389 18.046758
2026-01-25 0.008816 0.018174 0.040817 0.110973 0.389390 1.984621 26.343671
2026-02-01 0.007830 0.016396 0.037585 0.105354 0.388072 2.154815 35.507931
2026-02-08 0.007242 0.015473 0.036429 0.106313 0.418044 2.614612 59.565856
2026-02-15 0.006699 0.014582 0.035190 0.106660 0.446537 3.144082 102.021762
2026-02-22 0.006292 0.013965 0.034602 0.109259 0.490175 3.953953 201.572188
2026-03-01 0.005901 0.013336 0.033859 0.111091 0.532517 4.919478 417.887784
2026-03-08 0.005428 0.012427 0.032120 0.108418 0.546338 5.612306 748.661095
2026-03-15 0.004824 0.011103 0.028912 0.098750 0.508189 5.464280 900.002664